![]() No clear hierarchy or decision-making process so far exists. But as any mission always has a chance of failure, this will be a political, economic and humanitarian decision – and it may take time. The fate of the planet may rest on the decision, which may need to be made quickly. The gaps in Earth’s planetary defence lie in the decision-making process.Īuthorisation from the governments in the impact zone and the governments whose space agencies can carry out the missions is needed before a deflection mission can launch. The technical aspects of an international response to the threat of an asteroid impact are well coordinated between the astronomical observatories of IAWN that search for and characterise asteroids and the space agencies of SMPAG that could deflect or disrupt them. At the same time, UNOOSA would inform all governments to facilitate the coordination of an international response. Prior calculations about an approximate match to the incoming asteroid could save two-to-three years in selecting the deflection or disruption to be carried out. It is here that SMPAG’s scenarios could save crucial time. The first practical step each space agency would take would be to prepare its government to authorise any necessary action. ![]() If an asteroid that may strike Earth were to be detected, IAWN would alert SMPAG and the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) and inform the news media. SMPAG has prepared scenarios for combinations of different-size asteroids, various areas of impact and other parameters. ![]() Its main purpose is to prepare for an international response to a NEO threat by exchanging information, developing options for collaborative research, and conducting NEO threat-mitigation planning activities. The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) was established in February 2014. The results are compared and placed on the bodies’ respective websites, and IAWN is informed. The centre immediately sends the report to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Objects (NEOs) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California and to the NEOs research centre in Frascati, Italy, where the chances of an impact to Earth over the next 100 years are calculated using different methods. Each observatory covers its own operational expenses.Īny astronomer, whether part of IAWN or not, who detects a new asteroid reports it to the Minor Planet Center, which makes a fast but accurate calculation of the probability the asteroid will strike Earth. IAWN’s membership includes 40 professional and amateur observatories from all over the world that have signed a letter of intent to participate in IAWN. The Minor Planet Center, part of the International Astronomical Union, hosted the inaugural meeting at the US Harvard & Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) was set up in January 2014. An international response mechanism was soon established to forecast asteroid impact. The Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN COPUOS) accepted the research team’s recommendations, and in December 2013 the UN General Assembly welcomed them “with satisfaction”. The explosion above Chelyabinsk was a definite warning, and it was heeded. This asteroid’s surprise appearance is far from unique. The asteroid’s shallow entry angle and high speed of 19 kilometres per second relative to Earth allowed it to skip through. The one that exploded over Chelyabinsk was 14 metres to 17 metres across. The atmosphere protects Earth from asteroids 30 metres across or smaller – most of the time. The shockwave knocked down walls, blew out windows and injured over 1,600 people. On the morning of 15 February 2013, a research team in central Europe was preparing its final recommendations to a United Nations subcommittee on establishing an international response mechanism to prepare for an asteroid impact on Earth.ĭriving the point home would be a presentation by US space agency NASA showing asteroid ‘2012 DA14’ would pass within 27,700 kilometres of Earth that very afternoon – closer than the orbit of meteorology and communications satellites.īut the point would be well made before NASA’s presentation: later that morning a different asteroid exploded 30 kilometres above Chelyabinsk in Russia.
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